Det vi redan visste, staten tar alla pengar

Federal Workers Making Over $180,000 Increase By 2,000% In Past Five Years

från Zerohedge

QE unlimited?

Some brief thoughts on the most hyped up event since the premier of the movie Independence Day. I think a likely outcome of the meeting is that the FED continues to add flexibility in order to disappoint no one. In line with the current program of keeping the FED balance sheet intact, a “smart” way of making sure that nobody is disappointed without coming across as being in panic mode is to set a flexible target. For example to reserve the themselves the right to expand the balance sheet up to 800 billion USD, if needed.

This can also be motivated by the fact that the feedback effects of them buying the long-bond and increase in pre-payments in the existing portfolio is hard to predict. This would also give them flexibility in managing the problem of supply of treasuries, as the FED can only hold 35% of a single CUSIP.

Maybe this sounds like a too dovish outcome. But it is important to remember the dual mandate of the FED, price stability and full employment. In the view of the FED, as long as there is unemployment, there is a slack in the economy and inflation will not be a problem. In the current situation this means that they can pretty much go all in with the few weapons they have at their disposal, QE, in order to bring down unemployment.

Moreover, in the choice between weaker dollar and weaker stocks, it is pretty clear that weaker dollar is the preferred choice. And above all, they want to avoid disruptive market volatility, which will surely come if the surprise to the downside.

So with one week EURUSD volatility trading about 7 vols above realized volatility EURUSD needs to end up above 1.4170 or below 1.3630 next week if the market is right about this one (spot ref 1.39). I think, similar to Independence Day, this might be a huge hype the rumor, sell the fact event.

Och så var svenskarna 200 miljoner fattigare

Prisändringar bostadsannonser sedan 1 okt 2010

Prisfall: -407 161 028 kr

Prishöjning: 197 331 101 kr

Från boliga.se

Kommentar överflödig

Sverige, i nivå med Italien?

Om man tittar på den totala skuldsättningen för ett land får man detta intressanta chart. Dock utan financials.

Economics 1on1

Peter Schiff förklarar läget

Foreclosure fraud explained in the Hitler bunker

Part 1

Part 2

Statliga bolag - bad idea.

Det statliga postverket i USA beräknas att förlora 3600 miljarder kronor fram till år 2030 om det får fortsätta att existera i sin nuvarande roll. Det är altså 3 600 000 000 000 kronor. Ganska dyrt för ett rent ideologisk ställningstagande. Skulle man privatsera skulle ju siffran vara 0, eventuella förluster skulle få bäras av privata företag.

Läs artikel här


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Sa någon att krisen var över?

Sa någon att krisen var över?

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Sa någon att krisen var över?

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Sa någon att krisen var över?

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Vi är alla Apple

Apple är numera över 20% av NASDAQ indexet

Sa någon att krisen var över?

#1 Approximately 45 million Americans were living in poverty in 2009.

#2 According to the Associated Press, experts believe that 2009 saw the largest single year increase in the U.S. poverty rate since the U.S. government began calculating poverty figures back in 1959.

#3 The U.S. poverty rate is now the third worst among the developed nations tracked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

#4 According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, on a year-over-year basis, household participation in the food stamp program has increased 20.28%.

#5 The number of Americans on food stamps surpassed 41 million for the first time ever in June.

#6 As of June, the number of Americans on food stamps had set a new all-time record for 19 consecutive months.

#7 One out of every six Americans is now being served by at least one government anti-poverty program.

#8 More than 50 million Americans are now on Medicaid, the U.S. government health care program designed principally to help the poor.

#9 One out of every seven mortgages in the United States was either delinquent or in foreclosure during the first quarter of 2010.

#10 Nearly 10 million Americans now receive unemployment insurance, which is almost four times as many as were receiving it in 2007.

#11 The number of Americans receiving long-term unemployment benefits has risen over 60 percent in just the past year.

#12 According to one recent survey, 28% of all U.S. households have at least one member that is looking for a full-time job.

#13 Nationwide, bankruptcy filings rose 20 percent in the 12 month period ending June 30th.

#14 More than 25 percent of all Americans now have a credit score below 599.

#15 One out of every five children in the United States is now living in poverty.

15 Shocking Facts Show That the Middle Class is Being Wiped Out

Att fånga en fallande kniv

I finansbranschen finns ett klassiskt uttryck. Do not try to catch a falling knife.

I praktiska termer brukar det låta något i stil med: Aktien har gått ner med 50%, det måste vara köpläge nu. Nu är det billigt.

Well, alla aktier som gått till 0 har något gemensamt. Innan de blev värdelösa gick de ner 50%.

Självfallet har husköpare i USA (till synes fortfarande arbetslösa och utan tillgångar) försökt sig på att köpa "billigt" med det tidigare höga priset som enda datapunkt till att bedömma om priset verkligen var billigt.

"The original owner bought the home for $400,714 in 2006; Harris and her husband, both bartenders, paid what seemed to be a bargain price, $289,000, in 2008. But they have fallen behind on their mortgage payments, in part because her husband was out of work. Now they have a $246,000 offer for the home, and the balance on their mortgage is more than that. They want to accept the offer. All they need is their bank's okay."

Walking away with less


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Så kan hyperinflationen uppstå på en handelsdag

Trött på Hitchcock? Här är två mycket bra artiklar exakt hur vi kan gå från deflation till hyperinflation inom en trading-dag. Om 2007 lärde oss något, be prepared for the highly unlikely.


Del 1: Så kan hyperinflation uppstå

Del 2: Mer ingånde diskussion kring hyperinflation och dess följder


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Intressanta likheter mellan Grekland och USA

I artikeln som nämns nedanför så beskriver Michael Lewis hur Grekland fuskade med sin statistik för att få bli medlem i EMU. En varningssignal som fanns redan då var att grekerna tycktes låna ungefär dubbelt så mycket pengar som det officiellt redovisade budgetunderskottet.

"Which is to say that even at the time, some observers noted that Greek numbers never seemed to add up. A former I.M.F. official turned economic adviser to former Greek prime minister Konstantinos Mitsotakis turned Salomon Brothers analyst named Miranda Xafa pointed out in 1998 that if you added up all the Greek budget deficits over the previous 15 years they amounted to only half the Greek debt. That is, the amount of money the Greek government had borrowed to fund its operations was twice its declared shortfalls. "

från Vanity Fair

Nu skriver vissa bloggar att i princip samma sak gäller för USA. I genomsnitt har USA lånat 50% mer pengar än vad det officiella underskottet visar.

"The US Treasury department continues to issue debt well in excess of the monthly deficit. When we conducted our analysis initially, the average debt issued over any given period's deficit was $34 billion (beginning in October 2006). To be sure, this number has increased to an average of over $35 billion when taking into account the last few months' data. In other words, over the past 47 months, or almost 4 full fiscal years, the US has accumulated a $3.3 trillion deficit, while over the same period, total Federal debt increased by $4.9 trillion, from $8.6 trillion to $13.4 trillion. What many pundits have yet to realize is that on average the US issues exactly 50% more debt than it needs to merely fund its deficit"

Från Zerohedge

Artikeln som norrmännen missade

Michael Lewis, författaren bakom flera briljanta böcker, bland annat Liar's Poker och The Big Short, har skrivit en utsökt artikel om den grekiska krisen. Hade varit något för norrmännen att läsa innan de i dagarna meddelade att de ska köpa grekiska statspapper.

Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds

Heja Slovakien

Slovak Premier Slams Euro Bailouts

Spanien

Arbetslösheten nu 20.3%